A rapid series of bomb warnings has hit European air travel, moving from one airline or airport to the next. In nearly every case the alerts were treated as credible enough to divert the aircraft. London's Heathrow was the notable exception. In Italy, fighter jets were scrambled to escort a flight. Every warning so far has proved false, though that does not mean a later one will be.
The coordinated pattern, together with other malicious activity across Europe, has led some to suspect Russia. Earlier this year there were cyber-attacks and unexplained drone sightings over sensitive sites. In recent days supermarket freezers and a blood bank have been hacked remotely. There was also a suspicious incident on Poland's border with Russia. In August a drone struck Leipzig Halle airport in Germany, and the German interior minister publicly blamed Moscow.
Some see the hoaxes, on circumstantial grounds alone, as another case of hybrid or grey-zone activity: anonymous, deniable harm to infrastructure or society that stays below the level that would trigger Nato's Article 5. Moscow is angry that Nato support for Ukraine has blocked the Kremlin's aim of absorbing that country and ending its independence. Russian bloggers have argued that if Ukrainian drones are making Russian airports unsafe, and Western sanctions keep Russian airlines out of European airspace, Western countries should feel the same disruption.
By Thursday evening there was still no hard evidence tying the airline hoaxes to Russia, Iran or proxy groups they control. On Thursday morning an email to airport authorities in Rome claimed to come from Fighters of the Male State. That name appears to point to Muzhskoi Legion, or Male Legion, an ultra-right Russian group banned by a Moscow court in 2021. It kept tens of thousands of followers on Telegram and backed Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine the next year. Even if the Rome email is genuine, another group could be using the name, and it is unlikely to give police and airports the leads they need.
National police, airport authorities and transport ministries are being urged to follow concrete leads rather than assume who is most likely responsible, and to plan how to limit the damage if the hoaxes return.